Completed: 40 $3.50+.30 Super Turbo Sit and Goes

I ran two earlier “projects”, the Bet/Raise/Fold exercise and the $1 Turbo Sit and Go project, and after both projects reviewed some statistics after 40 games. Now I’ve played 40 of the new Super Turbos on Full Tilt so I thought that I should review the stats on these as well.

• Total cost: = 152.00
• Total return: = 182.65
• Net profit: = 30.65
• ROI: = 20%
• ITMs: = 19, 47.5%

Finishes:

1. 5
2. 5
3. 9
4. 6
5. 5
6. 6
7. 0
8. 3
9. 1

A lot of 3rds; probably too many. But it becomes difficult ITM to continue to steal blinds and be aggressive as the players become more willing to call. Basically the results are all skewered around 1 – 6 place, with a few outliers. The one 9th I remember raising from early with AK, late position shove and I called. He had 88 and held up to win. It’s a coinflip, but if I feel that I can raise and then fold to a shove, then I should fold. Otherwise I just should have shoved to begin with unless I’m trying to get action with AA/KK.

June 17, 2008

Bet the Set on the straight flop for value, and some Reverse Implied Odds

I don’t usually post hand histories in here but there are some interesting things that happened in this hand.

Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

CO ($38.75)
Hero ($33.35)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Jc, Jd.
1 fold, MPA raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds.

Max buy-in is $25 so I’m up. I raise JJ from UTG +1 (or MP1 as the converter is calling it because the table is 7 handed). CO, who has me covered and has had this since before I sat down at the table, calls.

Flop: ($2.35) Tc, Js, Qs (2 players)
MPA bets $1.5, CO calls $1.50.

Very scary flop but I’ve picked up a set. My immediate concern is he’s got AK for a made straight. Even so, I’ve got outs. Playing at this level and without a good read I feel I have to bet in the event that he has a weak Ace with a gutshot draw, or the spade flush draw. My bet is on the smallish side, possibly I viewed it as a blocking bet if he’s ahead as well as a a value bet to charge him if he’s drawing.

What I didn’t consider at the time is that there’s also a host of other hands that I’m ahead of that probably won’t fold and I can make money from: 99/TT/T9/JT/QJ/KQ/AQ/AJ/AT, possibly in combination with a flush draw. This is something for me to learn; a made straight on the board means there are a lot of straight draws, especially in combination with a pair, that are going to be willing to pay me off to see more cards. They may even semibluff a made straight here with all the outs that they have.

Turn: ($5.35) 7h (2 players).
MPA bets $3, CO calls $3.

Keep charging him in case he’s drawing. He calls, so he has something, making me more suspicious that I’m behind a made straight.

River: ($11.35) Ts (2 players)
MPA bets $6, CO raises to $18, MPA raises to $27.85, CO calls $9.85.

The second Ten gives me a full house so now I’m ahead of a straight. I bet, he raises so I shove and he calls. He was pretty confident with his hand on the river too, probably thinking that I had AK and he was behind a straight from the beginning.

Final Pot: $67.05
Hero has Jc Jd (full house, jacks full of tens).
CO has Qd Th (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $67.05.

I didn’t play this brilliantly. I narrowed the villain’s range too tight without seeing a whole range of pair/OESD hands that I should be giving worse odds to. I only got confident when the second Ten hit because I was afraid of AK from the beginning.

The other big thing to point out is the bad situation my opponent was in right from the flop. All because he called with a poor hand for calling a raise, even in position. On the river his play is fine as you can’t fold a full house. Pretty unlucky for him to lose to a higher full house.

But, bad policy to call someone who has a full stack, who hasn’t shown himself to be loose (at least I don’t think I had been playing loose), and who raises from early position, when all you’re holding is QT. This is an awful flop for him because one of the most likely hands for me to be holding is AK and all he has is two pair, and even without me having AK he was behind me right on the flop.

Basically with the preflop call he’s putting his whole stack at risk when he catches the second best hand as he did both on the flop and on the river.

Getting inside your adversaries’ heads

A quote, from Eric Van Lustbaders’s continuation of Robert Ludlum’s Bourne series, “The Bourne Betrayal”:

“Bourne’s success had come from being able to get inside his adversaries’ heads”

Maybe not a revolutionary statement, and perhaps Robert Ludlum already said it better but I don’t have those books available to me right now. Still, I note it because of the relevance it has to playing poker.

~

I’m working my way through the newly released Harrington books on cash games. Harrington gives an analysis of a hand from a poker show between a QQ and a JJ. QQ raises, JJ calls from the blinds, flop comes AKx. Both players are thinking that they are either WA/WB so both check the flop, turn. QQ makes a callable value bet on the river, JJ calls, Harrington says well played on both parts.

But these are pros playing against pros. How would one of these pros play either hand at a micro limit table? They have essentially the same hand, the only difference is position. Does JJ in the blinds 3-bet a micro player to find out what he has? A micro player with the QQ likely c-bets the flop, trying to fold anyone who missed the flop without considering the WA/WB concept. But if the pro checks the flop with QQ, a micro player with the JJ might assume that means weakness and pot the turn.

You have to be able to get inside your adversaries’ heads. When you play different levels you have to be able to sense the way your opponents think to narrow down the range of their holdings as well as to look for ways to beat them. If you know that they’re tight/weak, you can raise regularly into them but if they’re really tight you have to be ready to fold if they fight back. If they bet flops too often you have to look for opportunities to call when you have something to draw to or reraise them and challenge them.

Last night I wanted to use up 0.40 of tournament dollars I had so I joined a $1 Sit and Go on my main site, not the one I normally play the turbo SnGs on. This was a mistake because of the lateness of the hour but at least I did a few thing right. Played few hands early, got to 50/100 blinds with slightly more chips than I started with, started raising liberally. It helped that I had decent cards and the table was quite weak preflop. Bashed people around, folded to most other aggression. 4 handed I note the player to my right is betting most flops and shows down a bet at a totally missed flop. Within the space of a couple of orbits I note the other three of us have all taken turns raising his flop bets and he’s folded all three. Then he gets short stacked and starts shoving and builds his stack back up a bit.

Later the very tight/weak player across from me limps from the button into my BB. I have 99 and raise 4x. I know the button has some kind of hand since he limps about as many hands as a good player would be raising, meaning whatever he has is probably a normal raising hand. Takes his time and raises me back so I put him all in. He turns over JJ but I suck out with a 9 on the flop. 99 I could fold after his raise, but if he’s got AK/AQ/AJ I want to get him in because 1) I’m the chip leader, 2) I’m backing up my aggression, 3) and this tourney is taking too long

Anyway, I’m meandering. Maybe I played too late into the evening.